The main economic release for the week will be the employment report for September on Friday. We forecast a 200k rise, which includes +185k from the private sector, in particular, service providing employers. This would be in line with the 12-month trailing average and above the 6-month trend, which, we think, is enough to keep the Fed on track to hike 25bp in its December meeting.
In this regard, we expect the USD to be supported as markets are only pricing a 50% probability of the Fed rising rates through year-end.
Elsewhere in the report, we expect the unemployment rate to decline to 4.8%, average hourly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, and the average workweek to tick up 0.1, to 34.4 hours.
In addition, the USD could be additionally supported by the fact that Mrs. Clinton has regained some momentum (Figure 5) after the presidential debate particularly vis-a-vis safe-haven currencies and commodities such as JPY and gold. Markets will continue following poll results closely to assess any potential shift from undecided voters to either of the candidates as the share of them compared with past elections remains relatively high
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